A Realistic View of Global Warming

Let's take a realistic view of what we really know about Global Warming. Most environmental activists would have you believe that our burning of fossil fuels is causing this total disaster. That's probably pretty far from the truth.

What we really know? What do most scientists pretty much agree upon?
You will get almost total agreement on the fact that we are in a warming trend. Global Warming is most likely a reality. There is fairly good evidence that we were about as warm as now around the year 1000 AD. Then the Mini-Ice Age hit and lowered temperatures for several hundred years. Now we are out of that. Most scientific people will agree that the world goes through these cycles and we are coming out of a colder period. Some scientists feel that the present rate of increase in temperature is greater than should be expected. Most scientists would agree the carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and is causing some global warming. It is a fact that carbon dioxide gas is increasing in our atmosphere.

That is about where the general agreement ends. We really don't know how much the increase in carbon dioxide is effecting the warming. We don't know if this warming will reverse as it did 1000 yrs ago. We don't know how much of a difference we could make if we really trying. We aren't likely to shut down all our fossil fuel power plants very soon. Converting to nuclear, wind or solar would take many decades. Nor are we likely to convert all our cars, truck or train to run on electricity soon (Which would probability the best way to help the situation) and if we did we would need to build many more power plants.

So we really don't know whether, if we spent these hundreds of billions of dollars to stop burning fossil fuels, it will do must good at all. The less developed countries are not going to have that kind of money and will likely not follow suit. So in all likelihood our expensive efforts to combat global warming will probably fail.

I submit to you that we should be taking at least some of those hundreds of billions of dollars and spend it on research on how we can live with global warming. At this time, all our efforts are aimed at how to stop global warming, as if that is all we can do. We can and should be spending much effort on how we can live with it.

For instance, some crops will not be as successful in the areas where they used to grow. What should we grow there instead? Where should we grow the crops that were failing? If the sea levels are really going to rise, lets start to deal with that. If water shortages are likely, let's deal with that, with aqueducts, or water saving technology, water recycling or whatever it takes.

We are so terrified of change that we look only at the negative aspects of global warming. I have to believe that there are going to be many positive aspects of this new environment. I believe that money spent along the lines of understanding and optimizing this new environment, is far more likely to give a much greater return on our investment than moneys spent on trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Money spent on knowing how to live with Global Warming will almost surely be money worth spending, because very likely we will have to live with Warming. So often when this country is faced with a major problem, we quickly find one solution and go full bore on that one, disregarding any other possible (perhaps much better) solutions.

You may say, since we are running out of oil, we should be making these changes anyway, and that is true. However, lets be making our economic decisions based on high oil prices, not just throwing billions onto trying to reduce carbon emissions to stop global warming.

Also, I am not opposed to phasing out our fossil fuel power plants in favor of nuclear, wind and solar, but lets not assume that it will stop global warming. I believe we should be converting our trains and commuting car to electric very soon. Cross-country trucking will follow, and then cross country cars. The trouble is, then we will need a lot more electric power. That may mean it will be hard to phase out the coal plants, even when we build lots of new nuclear, wind and solar plants. Here the decision may have to be made, do we get off foreign oil and save lots of money, or do we cut carbon emissions. I am saying, cutting carbon emissions probabily not do much for Global Warming anyway.